The preseason is over. The roster is (nearly) set. Now it’s time to make some predictions.
With the Detroit Red Wings set to begin their 2024-25 season Thursday night in Detroit, here are 10 bold predictions on how their campaign will unfold.
1. Dylan Larkin scores 40 goals
Boldness level: 3 out of 5
Confidence level: 60 percent
OK, I’m using this one for the second year in a row. It fell short for me last year, but I stand by the spirit of it! Larkin had 33 goals in 68 games, which over an 82-game season totals out to a 39.7-goal pace.
Still, the franchise’s 40-goal drought is now at 15 seasons, not reached since Marian Hossa in 2008-09. But I think Larkin is the guy to break it. He’s found a whole new level as a scorer over the past three seasons, and last year Detroit finally surrounded him with the kind of talent needed to threaten 40. On most nights, Larkin will be playing with two of Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. His results last season proved what that looks like on the scoresheet.
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The question now is just health, as he hasn’t played a full 82 games since 2018. He hit 80 just two seasons ago, though, and if he can do that again, I think it’ll be enough to make this prediction come true.
2. Raymond becomes a point-per-game player
Boldness level: 3 out of 5
Confidence level: 50 percent
Raymond reached another level last season. His torrid finish to the season, which nearly helped push Detroit into the playoffs, brought his season totals to 31 goals and 72 points — legit top-line production.
Now, there are some questions around the peripherals, mainly in the form of a 19 percent shooting percentage that will be tough to repeat. But I think Raymond has another step up in store this season. His play in April proved he has it in him to take over games, and playing with Larkin and DeBrincat, it’s possible everyone on that line clears 30 goals this season.
Plus, there’s a simple enough mathematical solution to that shooting percentage question: shoot more. Raymond’s 163 shots on goal last season were actually fewer than he had as a rookie (184). He did have a career-high 311 shot attempts, so it’s not like he wasn’t looking to shoot, but there’s still plenty of room to up both numbers. If he can, point-per-game production is a real possibility.
3. No goalie hits 40 starts
Boldness level: 3.5 out of 5
Confidence level: 40 percent
The question all through training camp has been which of Detroit’s three goaltenders — Ville Husso, Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot — will emerge as the team’s No. 1. But what if the answer is none of them?
Certainly there will be stretches this year where someone will get hot and keep the net. Coach Derek Lalonde has shown a clear proclivity for that thus far in Detroit. But are any of the three really prepared to do that over a full season? Talbot is 37. Husso is coming off an injury-riddled 2023-24. And Lyon, who started 43 games for Detroit last season, showed signs of overwork while doing so.
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So, even while allowing for the inevitable stretch in which one netminder keeps the crease for the bulk of a month, here’s guessing Detroit’s breakdown ends up closer to 32-30-20 — with health the big variable that could shake things up.
4. Moritz Seider will lead the NHL in blocked shots
Boldness level: 2 out of 5
Confidence level: 65 percent
Seider nearly did this last year, so it’s not exactly going out on a limb. His 212 blocks last season were six shy of league leader Colton Parayko.
There’s an argument, of course, that Detroit should try to lessen the load on Seider, giving him more offensive situations rather than the NHL’s toughest minutes. I certainly wonder if there’s a sweet spot for tough minutes somewhere slightly below where Seider was last season.
But all indications are Detroit plans to keep using Seider the way it has been, and he’s been right back to his shot-blocking ways in preseason. If his overall minutes go up at all from the 22:22 per game he played last season, he could cruise to the top of the blocks leaderboard.
Moritz Seider finished second in the league in blocked shots last season with 212. (Rick Osentoski / Imagn Images)
5. Marco Kasper finishes the season in Detroit’s top six
Boldness level: 4 out of 5
Confidence level: 40 percent
After a roaring camp and preseason, the Red Wings sent Kasper to AHL Grand Rapids on Sunday. But I think Kasper showed enough in camp to take whatever opportunity he gets in Detroit — whenever it comes — and work his way up the lineup by year’s end.
Yes, his game is built on two-way responsibility and toughness, which make him an obvious fit for a matchup role like the third line. But really, Detroit needs a bit more of that higher in the lineup too, and Kasper’s fearlessness and pace could complement a smaller group of skilled wingers high in the lineup. I’d imagine the Red Wings will move Kasper around plenty whenever he gets the call, but I think those harder elements would be a welcome addition to one of their scoring lines.
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6. Detroit’s team scoring drops from top 10 to bottom 10
Boldness level: 4 out of 5
Confidence level: 30 percent
This is going to sound like a bit of an extreme prediction, but I was surprised at how little a drop-off it would take for this to actually come true. Last year, Detroit’s 275 goals ranked ninth in the league. But the 23rd-ranked team last season, Buffalo, still scored 244. That’s just a 31-goal difference, which feels entirely possible as a drop-off for the Red Wings, due to an expected dip in shooting percentage and the departure of several solid secondary scorers: David Perron, Robby Fabbri, Daniel Sprong, Shayne Gostisbehere and Jake Walman.
Vladimir Tarasenko might score more than any one of those three forwards, but certainly not as much as all of them, and Erik Gustafsson and Simon Edvinsson aren’t likely to score as much as Gostisbehere and Walman.
I do think there’s internal improvement coming — as evidenced by my first two predictions here — but nonetheless, this Detroit team is going to have to win games a bit differently than last year’s edition.
7. Patrick Kane scores the tournament-winning goal of the 4 Nations Face-off
Boldness level: 5 out of 5
Confidence level: 10 percent
OK, let’s get really bold now. I’ve been impressed by how fluid Kane has looked all camp. I’m buying the hype on his full summer of training and how it could help him reach another level this year. I think he’ll be good enough to secure a place on Team USA for the return of best-on-best international play on what should be a loaded team with a lot to play for.
Nobody has a feel for the moment quite like Kane. You remember that game in Chicago last year, don’t you? So when the chips are down in an overtime gold medal game with Canada, you better believe it’ll be Kane coming through to deliver the hardware.
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8. All four of the Red Wings’ Michigan alumni score at Ohio Stadium on March 1
Boldness level: 5 out of 5
Confidence level: 5 percent
This one borders on absurd, but hey, they’re supposed to be bold, right? There’s plenty of intrigue around Detroit’s Stadium Series contest in Columbus, especially with the University of Michigan ties on both teams. I think Detroit’s Wolverines come out extra fired up for that one, with Larkin and former high school quarterback Andrew Copp scoring in the first period, Tyler Motte getting a shorty in the second, and the rest of the gang force-feeding J.T. Compher looking to complete the set in the third.
Statistically, there’s not much chance of this. But it sure would make for a good story!
9. In Sweden, Axel Sandin-Pellikka will set the SHL U20 defense scoring record
Boldness level: 2 out of 5
Confidence level: 70 percent
This one sounds like it should be bold, but I’m not sure it really is. Sandin-Pellikka actually looked like he might threaten this record (Nils Lundkvist’s 31 points in 2019-20) last year when he had 10 goals and 18 points in 39 games. This year, he’s off to a roaring start with five points in his first seven games.
And while he’ll likely miss some action for the world juniors, he’s got the talent — and the supporting cast on a strong Skellefteå team — to make a serious run at surpassing Lundkvist’s mark.
10. The Red Wings miss the playoffs for the ninth straight year
Boldness level: 2 out of 5
Confidence level: 55 percent
I was torn here. On one hand, I do think the Red Wings are going to see some legit internal improvement from players like Larkin, Raymond, Edvinsson and Kasper. You can see that in these predictions.
But the makeup of the team is very similar to last season, and while that team came up just a tiebreaker short of the playoffs, that run came with some unfavorable underlying numbers and an unusually low cutoff for the playoffs (91 points). With an Eastern Conference field that saw several hopefuls improve (namely Ottawa, Washington and New Jersey), I think Detroit will be on the outside looking in once more.
My prediction is 89 points, two fewer than last season, representing the first time the team has taken a (small) step back under Steve Yzerman.
(Top photo of Dylan Larkin: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Max Bultman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Detroit Red Wings. He has also written for the Sporting News, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Max is a graduate of the University of Michigan, where he covered Michigan football and men's basketball. Follow Max on Twitter @m_bultman
