In France, the risk of power outages fades for the near future (2024)

At a time when bad news about French nuclear power is piling up – a new delay for the Flamanville EPR, additional shutdowns and repairs to some reactors due to corrosion problems – the electricity supply is holding up despite everything. At least for the next month. This was essentially the reassuring message that the grid operator put out on Tuesday, December 20, in its (now eagerly anticipated) monthly report.

"France is approaching the depths of winter in a more favorable situation than at the beginning of autumn, and is better prepared to deal with tense situations," said Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of RTE, which now anticipates only a "medium" risk of pressure on the electrical grid, rather than "high" as it had done a month earlier.

What is the reason for this improvement? First of all, there has been a marked drop in consumption – around 9% over the last four weeks, compared to pre-pandemic levels. With a drop of 12% in the industrial sector and 7% in the residential and tertiary sectors combined, according to RTE. Besides this restraint, the situation was further improved by the increase in imports. France bought up to 15 gigawatts (GW) of electricity from its neighbors before December 12, the equivalent of the output of a dozen reactors of the latest generation – a record.

Strengthening generating capacity

Another notable factor, according to RTE, is the increase in generating capacity. In hydropower, stocks, which were extremely low at the end of the summer due to the drought, were replenished during autumn. To the point of reaching "a production peak of 16.5 GW, close to the historical record for December," Mr. Veyrenc explained. This is positive news, and there is also the fact that gas stocks are still full, thanks to the mild temperatures this autumn, which enabled the heating period to be postponed. "Gas stocks are still around 85%, higher than in previous years in France," RTE noted.

As for nuclear production, the new hazards that are weakening EDF's plants have not affected RTE's forecasts. "The upturn in nuclear availability has been in line with our forecasts," Mr. Veyrenc stressed, pointing out that it had topped 40 GW in the week of December 12, notably after several reactors were brought back into service.

However, since the end of last week, EDF has announced several delays in restarting some of its power plants. On Friday, December 16, the group announced that the Flamanville 1 and Penly 1 reactors would restart later than planned. The next day, it announced that other reactors (eight in all) would be shut down for an extended period – 160 days, or five and a half months – in 2023, in connection with its new strategy of preventive repair of reactors exposed to stress corrosion.

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